Poll - which base market would you use?

We are very close to the next release and we have to decide which base currency we will use for the BSQ tokens (DAO token).

Initially it was planned as a Bitcoin based colored coin.
With the high tx fees in the last months we saw the need to support other base currencies and if another base currency would become the main market it makes more sense to use that as well for the DAO tokens as the trading fee can be paid in tokens and it is an important element in the economic model of the DAO.

Another reason to move away from Bitcoin as the base currency for the DAO token was that with UASF a chain split and a chaotic situation seemed to be likely disrupting Bitcoin for a few weeks/months and might lead to a permanent chain split which would also split the DAO tokens - creating undesired complexities and problems.
We even need to stop the Bitcoin market in case of a chain split because of too high risks. That would also stop the DAO token trading, which would be very unpleasant event if it happens just after the DAO is released (in a few weeks).

With the current changes with SegWit2x it seems more likely that SegWit will get activated (and the fight for a HD will go on) and a chain split will not happen (hope so).
Also tx fee level went down a lot and if one looks at those [1] charts [2] one might wonder if that high tx fee was a purely artificially created situation probably with the intention to increase tx fees and increase pressure for a block size increase.

So I am wondering if we should set our bets on Litecoin (Doge will unlikely become the main market and Dash and others are not impl. yet) and base the DAO tokens there, assuming that Litecoin will become the main market, or if we should stick with Bitcoin assuming that even with higher tx fees and disruptions it will remain the main market.

To not make the decision based on pure speculation and assumptions I would like to ask you to participate in that Twitter poll [3] to get a better feedback what our users and community thinks!

Could you post your opinion about the likelihood in % about the following?

  • likelihood of BTC to stay the main market
  • likelihood of a permanent chain split in BTC
  • likelihood of the need for deactivating trading on BTC for longer then 2 weeks
  • likelihood of activation of SegWit in next 3 months
  • likelihood of BTC tx fees to stay most of time below 1 EUR per average tx (1-2 months ago we had about 2-3 EUR, atm they are relatively low again)

[1] https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#all
[2] https://blockchain.info/charts/mempool-size?timespan=all
[3] https://twitter.com/bitsquare_/status/879275298709266432


I think it is reasonable to see Bitcoin as a most likely crypto to stay secure (in hashrate and in coding) and commonly used. There are always doubts about every coin’s future and there are always speculations about altcoins surpassing the oldest and in terms of hashrate, the most funded blockchain, but whatever happens, even if it stops being the most popular coin it will probably still be there. It will still be relatively active in development and trading even after 5 or more years. At least that is what I think it is reasonable to assume.

I believe that in long term, it is most reliable and safest to develop technology on Bitcoin’s blockchain. Since it is not directly bounded to the price of Bitcoin, it is safe from regrets of some other coins surpassing it in popularity and use, but it is safe to exist as a secure and usable chain. That is what I believe should be what we are looking for, a most reliable chain to operate safely for as long as possible.

The near future is more stable for Litecoin, that is true, but if we see Bitcoin as more likely to survive all of the problems thrown at it, then maybe we should go to that for a long term. Otherwise the Litecoin might eventually have it’s own issues and unlike Bitcoin, might have less incentives to survive. If the Bitcoin chain splits, which is absolutely possible, then we will stay on the chain we agreed upon before it happened and the other chain’s tokens will remain unused and worthless. The tokens should be only used by the Bisq client so it shouldn’t be ambiguity to any user about which are the only useful ones, so the replay attacks shouldn’t work as no one should send the other chain’s tokens to someone else as that will put them at risk for no useful benefit. To limit this problem, as many owners as possible should lock their other chain’s tokens in an unrecoverable address in case of a chain split. Perhaps client could do that for the user in the background, that would limit the possibility of a bug or other problems. If someone was to sell the other chain’s tokens, that would place them in danger because of greed and lack of good practice.

The damage done by chain split could be manageable, because there is one official software that should use only one predetermined chain and forbid the use of others. Since the whole point of DAO is to fund it’s development, this corresponds to one software having one token. The Bitcoin fees were always there to pay for the security provided by mining, which compared to other altcoins is the highest. High fees in Bitcoin, even if unnecessary, is the price we pay for it’s security.

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The DAO tokens would exist then also in 2 versions and as long 1 person gives a value to the minority chain it still will exist. Having several version of the DAO will be a pain (management, voting,…). But I don’t expect a permanent chain split now anymore (hopefully).

[EDIT after reading further…]:
Yes there might be some ways to control the effects of a chain split in BTC and for the BSQ tokens. I just would prefer to spend time on more productive things and executing control over which chain will be considered Bitcoin will cause disagreement and hassles.
Also BitcoinJ is atm blind to the chain, it follows automatically the longest PoW chain. Adding e.g. support for UASF chain only would require code change in BitcoinJ which nobody has done so far.
So to handle a chain split will a some troublesome event and will cause some disruption, eat up dev time and will put users at risk. That was the reason why I considered to revoke the Arbitrators to stop trading in such an event until things have settled.

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I don’t like making predictions, but here we go:

  1. 80% BTC to stay the main market
  2. 15% for a permanent chain split
  3. 60% for the need of deactivating trading for more then 2 weeks
  4. 80% for activation of SegWit in next 3 months
  5. 65% for fees to stay most of the time below 1 EUR

Other than the capitalization argument, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the only coins with some real usage value in a way or another. They are useful for some things, the rest by now look pretty much like merely speculative tools.
I will stay with bitcoin for certain.

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likelihood of BTC to stay the main market - 100%.
I don’t think any of the other coins listed (Dash, Lite, Doge) will replace it. I see ZCash or Monero as the more serious competition. Including these two coins, I would give BTC a 75% chance.
likelihood of a permanent chain split in BTC - 30%
likelihood of the need for deactivating trading on BTC for longer then 2 weeks - I don’t know, I’m not in any way qualified to answer.
likelihood of activation of SegWit in next 3 months -75%
likelihood of BTC tx fees to stay most of time below 1 EUR per average tx (1-2 months ago we had about 2-3 EUR, atm they are relatively low again) - 80%

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I don’t feel qualified for an educated opinion even though I read a lot on the topic.
Here’s my guess, very much like @alexej996

95% BTC to stay the main market
15% for a permanent chain split
60% for the need of deactivating trading for more then 2 weeks
85% for activation of SegWit in next 3 months
65% for fees to stay most of the time below 1 EUR

I am not (like marc) nothing more than a blockchain enthusiast and altcoin user, so I am not qualified to give predictions (except if being a user works by itself as some kind of qualification).
Nevertheless I tend to agree roughly with alexej996’s predictions (based on pure hunch) but with a few differences.

I think that predictions 2 and 3 influence each other. The higher the chance for a permanent split, the higher the chance for need of deactivating trading for weeks (and the opposite). So the two predictions should have similar percentages.
IMHO things seem to evolve smoothly (up until now). It seems that a HF has been avoided, so 2 and 3 have less than 50% to happen (if there won’t be a HF, there won’t be a need for trading deactivation).

About the last prediction (percentage of fee level) I can’t see any reason for trying to predict it. If we chose BTC for base currency, then what is the point of thinking about fees? If we are really afraid that BTC transaction fees will eventually get out of control, then we should consider other cryptos for base currency than BTC.

The ideal would be if bisq could be designed in such a way that in case of need BSQ could change base coin. Of course I have no idea of the difficulty level of such an endeavour, so I’m just expressing an idea without much consideration.

One last thought: At the moment BTC is really the strongest and most secure coin, but in case SW doesn’t happen it will face some very turbulent times ahead. With SW, Lightning and a serious Dev team behind it LTC seems very prominent and promising. I think that BTC without SW as base coin for bisq will cause more troubles than help.

Im going to stick to bitcoin for now, litecoin (which i own none of) if btc unusable/very high fees.
i hope to see xmr as the default when multisig and more mobile wallets are available (hopefully this year)

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Even with its recently high fees, I prefer bitcoin as the base currency simply because its an order of magnitude or two more secure than any of the alternatives—so I voted for bitcoin in the twiter poll. However, I could live with litecoin (since its technically so similar to bitcoin, and since many other projects are switching to litecoin since they’ve already activated SegWit) as the base currency for a while to avoid bitcoins temporarily high fees, as long as bisq includes switching back to bitcoin as the base currency on the roadmap for the future.

Yes all will be optional and as the feedback was that most think that BTC will stay the main market we decided to use BTC as base currency for the DOA tokens.
But it is up to the users to choose what they prefer and we will see how it develops. So far there are not many users on the LTC market.